{"id":74549,"date":"2025-09-16T00:28:01","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T04:28:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/2025\/09\/16\/%e5%8a%a0%e6%8b%bf%e5%a4%a7%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e5%9c%a8%e6%94%b6%e5%88%b0%e6%9c%80%e5%90%8e%e6%97%b6%e5%88%bb%e7%9a%84%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a%e5%90%8e%e4%b8%8b%e8%b0%83\/"},"modified":"2025-09-16T00:28:01","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T04:28:01","slug":"%e5%8a%a0%e6%8b%bf%e5%a4%a7%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e5%9c%a8%e6%94%b6%e5%88%b0%e6%9c%80%e5%90%8e%e6%97%b6%e5%88%bb%e7%9a%84%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a%e5%90%8e%e4%b8%8b%e8%b0%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/archives\/74549","title":{"rendered":"\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u6536\u5230\u6700\u540e\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u62a5\u544a\u540e\u4e0b\u8c03\u5229\u7387"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u5728\u672c\u5468\u4e09\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u9762\u4e34\u6700\u540e\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u62a5\u544a\u3001\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5173\u7a0e\u7acb\u573a\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u8ba1\u5212\u4ecd\u5b58\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u6839\u636eLSEG Data & Analytics\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u9884\u8ba1\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u6253\u7834\u8fde\u7eed\u4e09\u6b21\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u7684\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u4e0b\u8c03\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u81f32.5%\u3002<\/p>\n

\n<\/figure>\n

\u5728\u5ba3\u5e03\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u5728\u5468\u4e8c\u6536\u5230\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u76848\u6708\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u8ba1\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\u5e74\u7387\u5c06\u4ece7\u6708\u76841.7%\u5347\u81f32%\u3002<\/p>\n

Oxford Economics\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u603b\u76d1Tony Stillo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u4ed6\u5bf98\u6708\u901a\u80c02%\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0a\u6708\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u98df\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u52a0\u5feb\u3002<\/p>\n

Stillo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5bf9\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u6a59\u6c41\u7b49\u98df\u54c1\u7684\u53cd\u5236\u5173\u7a0e\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u4e0a\u6708\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n

8\u6708\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53cd\u6620\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u57289\u6708\u521d\u53d6\u6d88\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u53cd\u5236\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u4e3e\u63aa\u3002<\/p>\n

Stillo\u79f0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u52a0\u4e4b\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u5c06\u524a\u5f31\u4ef7\u683c\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

Stillo\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u201c\u6b63\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728\u8870\u9000\u8fb9\u7f18\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65e0\u8bba\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6GDP\u662f\u5426\u518d\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u90fd\u5c06\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n

Stillo\u8bf4\uff0c\u867d\u7136Oxford Economics\u6b64\u524d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5df2\u7ed3\u675f\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u516c\u53f8\u5df2\u8c03\u6574\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u968f\u7740\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u51cf\u5c11\u5e76\u53d6\u6d88\u4e86\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u53cd\u5236\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5f62\u52bf\u5df2\u7ecf\u6539\u53d8\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5728\u75b2\u5f31\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u592e\u884c\u4f1a\u91c7\u53d6\u4e00\u79cd\u4fdd\u9669\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u57289\u6708\u964d\u606f\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a10\u6708\u8fd8\u4f1a\u518d\u964d\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Stillo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5e26\u52302.25%\uff0c\u5373\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u4e0b\u9650\uff0c\u5728\u8be5\u533a\u95f4\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u589e\u957f\u65e2\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u523a\u6fc0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n

\n<\/figure>\n

TD Economics\u57289\u670812\u65e5\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u79f0\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8d38\u6613\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u75b2\u8f6f\u6b63\u5728\u6291\u5236\u6b8b\u4f59\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7406\u7531\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u901a\u80c0\u8bfb\u6570\u610f\u5916\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7ee7\u7eed\u89c2\u671b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6d41\u5927\u81f4\u7b26\u5408\u592e\u884c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u4e0e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8c03\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u5347\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

TD\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ecd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7684\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\u63a5\u8fd1\u5c3e\u58f0\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u5229\u7387\u4e3a2.25%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u592e\u884c7\u670830\u65e5\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u7eaa\u8981\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ba1\u59d4\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u201c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81ea\u90a3\u65f6\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u5df2\u62a5\u544a7\u6708\u548c8\u6708\u5408\u8ba1\u6d41\u5931\u8d85\u8fc710\u4e07\u4e2a\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u4f7f\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u53470.2\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u81f37.1%\u3002<\/p>\n

Capital Economics\u7684\u5317\u7f8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Thomas Ryan\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u75b2\u5f31\u6b63\u4ece\u53d7\u8d38\u6613\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u6269\u6563\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d8\u5316\u5c06\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a8\u52a8\u66f4\u591a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7ba1\u59d4\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u8f6c\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5bbd\u677e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u51cf\u5f31\uff0cCapital Economics\u9884\u8ba1\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u5728\u672c\u5468\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u518d\u964d\u4e00\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u4e89\u7aef\u4e2d\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u8fc4\u4eca\u907f\u514d\u8fc7\u4e8e\u8d85\u524d\u8868\u6001\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u5982\u4f55\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u901a\u80c0\u5982\u4f55\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u4ecd\u5145\u6ee1\u672a\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n

\n<\/figure>\n

Stillo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u8c03\u6574\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u91c7\u53d6\u201c\u5c0f\u6b65\u524d\u8fdb\u201d\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u591a\u6307\u5f15\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u4ed6\u540c\u65f6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u5927\u672a\u77e5\u6570\u662f\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u8ba1\u5212\u4e2d\u7684\u79cb\u5b63\u9884\u7b97\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u51fa\u4ec0\u4e48\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u603b\u7406\u5361\u5c3c\u5df2\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u8be5\u9884\u7b97\u5c06\u5728\u8fd0\u8425\u7aef\u91c7\u53d6\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u56fd\u9632\u548c\u57fa\u5efa\u65b9\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8d44\u672c\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n

Stillo\u79f0\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u4f1a\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u652f\u51fa\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5c06\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5e76\u51cf\u8f7b\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u9632\u8303\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u4e0e\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u5b58\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0cStillo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u592e\u884c\u5728\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u5bbd\u677e\u63aa\u65bd\u65f6\u90fd\u4f1a\u201c\u8c28\u614e\u201d\u4e14\u201c\u52a1\u5b9e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u77ac\u606f\u4e07\u53d8\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u60f3\u5b9e\u65bd\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u53c8\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u56de\u64a4\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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