{"id":74243,"date":"2025-09-14T21:02:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T01:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/?p=74243"},"modified":"2025-09-14T21:05:46","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T01:05:46","slug":"%e5%8a%a0%e6%8b%bf%e5%a4%a7%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%9c%a8%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e5%a0%b1%e5%91%8a%e5%be%8c%e9%a0%90%e8%a8%88%e5%b0%87%e4%b8%8b%e8%aa%bf%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/archives\/74243","title":{"rendered":"\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5728\u901a\u8139\u5831\u544a\u5f8c\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u4e0b\u8abf\u5229\u7387"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u5728\u672c\u5468\u4e09\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u7b56\u4e2d\u9762\u81e8\u6700\u5f8c\u6642\u523b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u5831\u544a\u3001\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u95dc\u7a05\u7acb\u5834\u7684\u8f49\u8b8a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u8a08\u5283\u4ecd\u5b58\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6839\u64daLSEG Data & Analytics\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u9810\u8a08\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u6253\u7834\u9023\u7e8c\u4e09\u6b21\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u7684\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u4e0b\u8abf\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u81f32.5%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u5ba3\u5e03\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u5728\u5468\u4e8c\u6536\u5230\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\u76848\u6708\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5e02\u5834\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u8a08\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578\u5e74\u7387\u5c07\u5f9e7\u6708\u76841.7%\u5347\u81f32%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7e3d\u76e3Tony Stillo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9019\u8207\u4ed6\u5c0d8\u6708\u901a\u81392%\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e0a\u6708\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u98df\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u52a0\u5feb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stillo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9810\u8a08\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5c0d\u4f5b\u7f85\u91cc\u9054\u6a59\u6c41\u7b49\u98df\u54c1\u7684\u53cd\u5236\u95dc\u7a05\u63a8\u52d5\u4e86\u4e0a\u6708\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u901a\u8139\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

8\u6708\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u4e0d\u6703\u53cd\u6620\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u57289\u6708\u521d\u53d6\u6d88\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u53cd\u5236\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u8209\u63aa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stillo\u7a31\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u52a0\u4e4b\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7d93\u6fdf\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u5c07\u524a\u5f31\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stillo\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u201c\u6b63\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728\u8870\u9000\u908a\u7de3\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7121\u8ad6\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6GDP\u662f\u5426\u518d\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u90fd\u5c07\u96e3\u4ee5\u5be6\u73fe\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stillo\u8aaa\uff0c\u96d6\u7136Oxford Economics\u6b64\u524d\u8a8d\u70ba\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5df2\u7d50\u675f\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u516c\u53f8\u5df2\u8abf\u6574\u4e86\u9810\u6e2c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u201c\u96a8\u7740\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e26\u53d6\u6d88\u4e86\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u53cd\u5236\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u5f62\u52e2\u5df2\u7d93\u6539\u8b8a\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u5728\u75b2\u5f31\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u592e\u884c\u6703\u63a1\u53d6\u4e00\u7a2e\u4fdd\u96aa\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u57289\u6708\u964d\u606f\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba10\u6708\u9084\u6703\u518d\u964d\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stillo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5e36\u52302.25%\uff0c\u5373\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u5340\u9593\u7684\u4e0b\u9650\uff0c\u5728\u8a72\u5340\u9593\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5c0d\u589e\u9577\u65e2\u4e0d\u904e\u5ea6\u523a\u6fc0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u904e\u5ea6\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TD Economics\u57289\u670812\u65e5\u7684\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u7a31\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u8cbf\u6613\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u75b2\u8edf\u6b63\u5728\u6291\u5236\u6b98\u9918\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7406\u7531\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u901a\u8139\u8b80\u6578\u610f\u5916\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u89c0\u671b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u7e3d\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u6578\u64da\u6d41\u5927\u81f4\u7b26\u5408\u592e\u884c\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u8207\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8abf\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u5347\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TD\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4ecd\u8a8d\u70ba\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7684\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\u63a5\u8fd1\u5c3e\u8072\uff0c\u76ee\u6a19\u5229\u7387\u70ba2.25%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u592e\u884c7\u670830\u65e5\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7d00\u8981\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ba1\u59d4\u6703\u6210\u54e1\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u201c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u81ea\u90a3\u6642\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\u5df2\u5831\u544a7\u6708\u548c8\u6708\u5408\u8a08\u6d41\u5931\u8d85\u904e10\u842c\u500b\u5c31\u696d\u5d17\u4f4d\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u4f7f\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u53470.2\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u81f37.1%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Capital Economics\u7684\u5317\u7f8e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Thomas Ryan\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u75b2\u5f31\u6b63\u5f9e\u53d7\u8cbf\u6613\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u884c\u696d\u64f4\u6563\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ed6\u9810\u8a08\u9019\u4e00\u8b8a\u5316\u5c07\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a8\u52d5\u66f4\u591a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7ba1\u59d4\u6703\u6210\u54e1\u8f49\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5bec\u9b06\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u96a8\u7740\u901a\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u6e1b\u5f31\uff0cCapital Economics\u9810\u8a08\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u5728\u672c\u5468\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u518d\u964d\u4e00\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u65b0\u8208\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u722d\u7aef\u4e2d\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u8fc4\u4eca\u907f\u514d\u904e\u65bc\u8d85\u524d\u8868\u614b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u8cbf\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u5982\u4f55\u6f14\u8b8a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u901a\u8139\u5982\u4f55\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u4ecd\u5145\u6eff\u672a\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stillo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9810\u8a08\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u8abf\u6574\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u63a1\u53d6\u201c\u5c0f\u6b65\u524d\u9032\u201d\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u591a\u6307\u5f15\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u4ed6\u540c\u6642\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u5927\u672a\u77e5\u6578\u662f\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u8a08\u5283\u4e2d\u7684\u79cb\u5b63\u9810\u7b97\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u51fa\u4ec0\u9ebc\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7e3d\u7406\u5361\u5c3c\u5df2\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u8a72\u9810\u7b97\u5c07\u5728\u904b\u71df\u7aef\u63a1\u53d6\u7dca\u7e2e\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5728\u570b\u9632\u548c\u57fa\u5efa\u65b9\u9762\u9032\u884c\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u8cc7\u672c\u6295\u8cc7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stillo\u7a31\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u6703\u95dc\u6ce8\u9019\u4e9b\u652f\u51fa\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u5c07\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4e26\u6e1b\u8f15\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u9632\u7bc4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u8cbf\u6613\u8207\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u5b58\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0cStillo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9810\u8a08\u592e\u884c\u5728\u63a1\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u5bec\u9b06\u63aa\u65bd\u6642\u90fd\u6703\u201c\u8b39\u614e\u201d\u4e14\u201c\u52d9\u5be6\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u201c\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u77ac\u606f\u842c\u8b8a\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u60f3\u5be6\u65bd\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u53c8\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u56de\u64a4\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u592e\u884c\u884c\u9577\u6700\u4e0d\u9858\u610f\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c31\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u9006\u8f49\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u5728\u672c\u5468\u4e09\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u7b56\u4e2d\u9762\u81e8\u6700\u5f8c\u6642\u523b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u5831\u544a\u3001\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u95dc\u7a05\u7acb\u5834\u7684\u8f49\u8b8a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u8a08\u5283\u4ecd\u5b58\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002 \u6839\u64daLSEG Data & Analytics\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u9810\u8a08\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u6253…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":74244,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[131],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-74243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canada"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74243","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74243"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74243\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":74246,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74243\/revisions\/74246"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74244"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74243"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74243"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74243"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}