{"id":59367,"date":"2025-07-20T17:56:13","date_gmt":"2025-07-20T21:56:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/2025\/07\/20\/%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8a%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e5%8a%a0%e6%8b%bf%e5%a4%a7%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e7%9b%ae%e5%89%8d%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e6%9a%82%e5%81%9c%e9%99%8d\/"},"modified":"2025-07-20T17:56:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-20T21:56:13","slug":"%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8a%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e5%8a%a0%e6%8b%bf%e5%a4%a7%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e7%9b%ae%e5%89%8d%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e6%9a%82%e5%81%9c%e9%99%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/archives\/59367","title":{"rendered":"\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u89e3\u91ca\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u6682\u505c\u964d\u606f\u884c\u52a8\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u968f\u7740\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u89c2\u671b\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u592e\u884c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u518d\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\n<\/figure>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4eca\u5e743\u6708\u66fe\u5c0f\u5e45\u964d\u606f0.25\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u592e\u884c\u57284\u6708\u548c6\u6708\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e2d\u7ef4\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u57282.75%\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c31\u4e1a\u610f\u5916\u56de\u6696+\u901a\u80c0\u6301\u7a33=\u7ef4\u6301\u89c2\u671b<\/p>\n

\u6700\u8fd1\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u610f\u5916\u589e\u957f\uff1b<\/p>\n

\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7ef4\u6301\u57283%\u5de6\u53f3\uff1b<\/p>\n

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\u964d\u606f\u901a\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff1b\u800c\u5982\u679c\u62c5\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5219\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u6216\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u6291\u5236\u7269\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76ee\u524d\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u672a\u6765\u6570\u6708\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u67091\u52302\u6b21\u5c0f\u5e45\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6709\u58f0\u97f3\u8ba4\u4e3a\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\u6216\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u5c3e\u58f0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7687\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\uff08RBC\uff09\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Frances Donald\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u67d0\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u786e\u5b9e\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u53d7\u5173\u7a0e\u6253\u51fb\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f46\u964d\u606f\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u5168\u5c40\u6027\u5de5\u5177\u201d\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u7cbe\u51c6\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

Donald\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5b89\u7701Windsor\u5730\u533a\u53d7\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u91cd\u521b\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u8d85\u8fc711%\uff1b\u800cBC\u7701\u7ef4\u591a\u5229\u4e9a\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4ec5\u4e3a3.9%\u3002\u4e24\u5730\u5374\u9762\u4e34\u540c\u6837\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u523a\u6fc0\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

RBC\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0cWindsor\u7b49\u5730\u65b9\u66f4\u9700\u8981\u653f\u5e9c\u901a\u8fc7\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u7cbe\u51c6\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5168\u56fd\u7edf\u4e00\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\n<\/figure>\n

\u5979\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u5df2\u7d2f\u8ba1\u964d\u606f2.25\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u4f20\u5bfc\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u5c06\u63a5\u529b\u68d2\u4ea4\u7ed9\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u672a\u6765\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n

RBC\u5c55\u671b\u8f83\u4e3a\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u56de\u5347\uff1b<\/p>\n

Oxford Economics\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5df2\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u53d7\u5173\u7a0e\u4e0e\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u538b\u529b\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u52302026\u5e74\u4e2d\u901a\u80c0\u5c06\u5347\u81f33%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u4ee5\u9632\u901a\u80c0\u62ac\u5934\u3002<\/p>\n

\u516c\u4f17\u201c\u901a\u80c0\u521b\u4f24\u201d\u4ecd\u5728\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u867d\u65e0\u671b\uff0c\u4f46\u5bbd\u677e\u7a7a\u95f4\u6709\u9650\u3002Donald\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u9ad8\u4f01\u4ee4\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u6c11\u4f17\u201c\u7559\u4e0b\u5fc3\u7406\u9634\u5f71\u201d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u4e5f\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u907f\u514d\u518d\u5ea6\u53d1\u751f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n

BMO\uff08\u8499\u7279\u5229\u5c14\u94f6\u884c\uff09\u5f53\u524d\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u5c06\u6709\u4e09\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u5c06\u5728\u660e\u5e743\u6708\uff1b\u4f46BMO\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Doug Porter\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u964d\u606f\u7684\u671f\u5f85\u6b63\u9010\u6e10\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4ec5\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff1b\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u548c\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u51cf\u8f7b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u5bbd\u677e\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

Capital Economics\u7684Stephen Brown\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4ecd\u63a5\u8fd17%\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fd0\u884c\u4ecd\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6f5c\u529b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e0d\u964d\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u65f6\u5c1a\u65e9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u964d\u81f32.25%\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002
Donald\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u76842.75%\u5229\u7387\u5904\u4e8e\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u4e2d\u6027\u533a\u95f4\u201d\uff0c\u65e2\u4e0d\u523a\u6fc0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6291\u5236\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u672a\u6765\u6570\u636e\u7075\u6d3b\u5e94\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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