{"id":59039,"date":"2025-07-19T21:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-20T01:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/?p=59039"},"modified":"2025-07-19T15:29:58","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T19:29:58","slug":"%e9%97%9c%e7%a8%85%e4%b8%8b%e6%86%82%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e9%87%8d%e7%87%83%e5%b0%88%e5%ae%b6%e7%b1%b2%e5%b9%b4%e5%85%a7%e4%b8%8d%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chinesepress.com\/pre\/archives\/59039","title":{"rendered":"\u95dc\u7a05\u4e0b\u6182\u901a\u8139\u91cd\u71c3\u5c08\u5bb6\u7c72\u5e74\u5167\u4e0d\u964d\u606f"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u95dc\u7a05\u4e0b\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u592e\u884c\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0d\u6703\u518d\u6e1b\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7531\u65bc\u964d\u606f\u6703\u6709\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7d50\u675f\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u592e\u884c\u4eca\u5e743\u6708\u964d\u606f1\/4\u5398\uff0c\u57284\u6708\u548c6\u6708\u5c07\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u57282.75%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u4e86\u89e3\u7279\u6717\u666e\u95dc\u7a05\u5c07\u6703\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u52a0\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u9019\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u59276\u6708\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u610f\u5916\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\u7a69\u5b9a\u57283%\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u666e\u904d\u9810\u8a08\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u6703\u57287\u670830\u65e5\u7684\u8b70\u606f\u6642\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u6200\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u592e\u884c\u5e0c\u671b\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u548c\u63d0\u632f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6642\uff0c\u6703\u964d\u4f4e\u5176\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u7576\u64d4\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u901f\u6642\uff0c\u5247\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u5c07\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u5728\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e2d\u63d0\u632f\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u8a08\u592e\u884c\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u5c07\u81f3\u5c11\u518d\u964d\u606f\u4e00\u5230\u5169\u6b21\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u662f1\/4\u5398\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7687\u5bb6\u9280\u884c (RBC) \u662f\u5c11\u6578\u8a8d\u70ba\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u76ee\u524d\u4e0d\u6703\u518d\u964d\u606f\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RBC\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5510\u7d0d\u5fb7 (Frances Donald) \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u51fa\u73fe\u201c\u5c40\u90e8\u201d\u75b2\u8edf\u6642\u9078\u64c7\u518d\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u623f\u5e02\u548c\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u7b49\u53d7\u95dc\u7a05\u5f71\u97ff\u884c\u696d\u7684\u6025\u5287\u653e\u7de9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5979\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u8003\u616e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u964d\u606f\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u89e3\u6c7a\u570b\u5167\u7d93\u6fdf\u76ee\u524d\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5979\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u5426\u9700\u8981\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u5b83\u90fd\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u6bcf\u500b\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u548c\u6bcf\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u53d7\u95dc\u7a05\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u5b89\u7701\u6eab\u838e\u5e02\uff08\u76ee\u524d\u5931\u696d\u7387\u8d85\u904e11%\uff09\u5c07\u8207\u5351\u8a69\u7701\u7dad\u591a\u5229\u4e9e\u5e02\uff08\u76ee\u524d\u5931\u696d\u7387\u50c5\u70ba3.9%\uff09\u5f9e\u964d\u606f\u4e2d\u7372\u5f97\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5979\u8aaa\uff0c\u50cf\u7dad\u591a\u5229\u4e9e\u5e02\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0d\u5408\u9069\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u76f8\u53cd\uff0cRBC\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6eab\u838e\u7b49\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u8981\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u4f9b\u7cbe\u78ba\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5510\u7d0d\u5fb7\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u4e2d\u5df2\u964d\u606f\u767e\u5206\u4e4b2.25\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u652f\u6301\u73fe\u5728\u624d\u958b\u59cb\u6ef2\u900f\u5230\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5979\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u51fa\u73fe\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u8de1\u8c61\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u592e\u884c\u73fe\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c07\u63a5\u529b\u68d2\u4ea4\u7d66\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u800c\u7121\u9700\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u591a\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5979\u53c8\u8868\u793a\uff0cRBC\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\u9810\u6e2c\u6a5f\u69cb\u66f4\u70ba\u6a02\u89c0\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u5728\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u4fdd\u6301\u97cc\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u5546\u696d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u9810\u671f\u53cd\u5f48\u7684\u63a8\u52d5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u5269\u9918\u6642\u9593\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u5c07\u6703\u52a0\u901f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7136\u800c\u725b\u6d25\u7d93\u6fdf\u7814\u7a76\u9662 (Oxford Economics) \u9810\u8a08\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5df2\u7d93\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u6301\u7e8c\u5230\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u8a72\u6a5f\u69cb\u4e5f\u9810\u8a08\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u4e0d\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u672c\u5468\u5728\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u5c55\u671b\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u9810\u8a08\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u5931\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u5c07\u52a0\u901f\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u65bc\u95dc\u7a05\u548c\u76f8\u95dc\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7dca\u5f35\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u52302026\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\u901a\u8139\u5c07\u5347\u81f33%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u725b\u6d25\u7d93\u6fdf\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u5e0c\u671b\u6291\u5236\u4efb\u4f55\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u963b\u7919\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5176\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5510\u7d0d\u5fb7\u5247\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u901a\u8139\u98c6\u5347\u5f8c\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u65b0\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u5728\u4ed6\u5011\u5468\u570d\u4e0d\u65b7\u6e67\u73fe\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u611f\u5230\u201c\u5fc3\u6709\u9918\u60b8\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5979\u8aaa\uff1a\u201c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u4e00\u5834\u975e\u5e38\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u8ca0\u64d4\u80fd\u529b\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u800c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u907f\u514d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f2a\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6eff\u5730\u53ef\u9280\u884c(BMO) \u76ee\u524d\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u518d\u964d\u606f\u4e09\u6b21\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u6b21\u5c07\u5728\u660e\u5e743\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46BMO\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u6ce2\u7279 (Doug Porter) \u627f\u8a8d\uff0c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u652f\u6301\u6e1b\u5c11\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u518d\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ed6\u5728\u5468\u4e8c\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u770b\u770b\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u8005\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4ed6\u5011\u771f\u7684\u53ea\u9810\u8a08\u518d\u964d\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6ce2\u7279\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5c07\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5728\u570b\u9632\u548c\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u6e1b\u8f15\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u964d\u606f\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u51f1\u6295\u5b8f\u89c0 (Capital Economics) \u5317\u7f8e\u526f\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e03\u6717 (Stephen Brown) \u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5728\u5931\u696d\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u8fd17%\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e14\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u51fa\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5df2\u7d50\u675f\u964d\u606f\u662f\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u6240\u8655\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4efb\u4f55\u964d\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5f88\u5c0f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u70ba2.75%\uff0c\u4f4d\u65bc\u5176\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u201c\u4e2d\u6027\u5340\u9593\u201d\u7684\u4e2d\u9ede\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u5340\u9593\u5167\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u65e2\u4e0d\u523a\u6fc0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6291\u5236\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5e03\u6717\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9810\u8a08\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u6700\u7d42\u5c07\u964d\u81f32.25%\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u592e\u884c\u7684\u5bec\u9b06\u5468\u671f\u624d\u6703\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u8cbf\u6613\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e9b\u9806\u98a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5510\u7d0d\u5fb7\u5247\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u5b9a\u4f4d\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u6027\u5340\u9593\u7684\u4e2d\u9ede\uff0c\u80fd\u5920\u5728\u9700\u8981\u6642\u901a\u904e\u5e7e\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u4f86\u4e0b\u8abf\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u901a\u8139\u8b49\u660e\u9811\u56fa\u6642\u4fdd\u6301\u5229\u7387\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5979\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5979\u4e0d\u9810\u8a08\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6703\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u5979\u8a8d\u70ba\u592e\u884c\u901a\u904e\u7dad\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u4f86\u4fdd\u6301\u6574\u9ad4\u9748\u6d3b\u6027\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6578\u64da\u544a\u8a34\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u8a72\u671d\u90a3\u500b\u65b9\u5411\u8b8a\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5979\u53c8\u8aaa\uff1a\u201c\u4ed6\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u9078\u64c7\u5728\u9019\u4e00\u6c34\u5e73\u505c\u7559\u4e00\u5230\u5169\u5e74\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u671d\u4e00\u500b\u65b9\u5411\u6216\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u65b9\u5411\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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