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\u3000\u3000\u4e2d\u56fd\u65e5\u62a5\u7f513\u67089\u65e5\u7535 \u4eca\u5e74\u5168\u56fd\u4e24\u4f1a\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u300a\u653f\u5e9c\u5de5\u4f5c\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u786e\u5b9a\u4e862025\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u2014\u20145%\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u591a\u56fd\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5168\u7403\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u6311\u6218\u6b63\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\u7a33\u5b9a\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u52bf\u5934\u5145\u6ee1\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u9a71\u52a8\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u84ec\u52c3\u589e\u957f<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u57c3\u585e\u4fc4\u6bd4\u4e9a\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u987e\u95ee\u5df4\u52d2\u4e4c\u00b7\u5fb7\u7c73\u897f(Balew Demissie)\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u9020\u5c31\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u84ec\u52c3\u589e\u957f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u52a0\u5f3a\u5bf9\u5185\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5b9e\u884c\u4e86\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u5f00\u653e\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u4e0d\u9057\u4f59\u529b\u5730\u8fdb\u884c\u7740\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u60e0\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\uff0c\u4e5f\u9020\u798f\u5168\u7403\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u3000\u3000\u56fd\u9645\u5546\u754c\u770b\u597d\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u5c55\u524d\u666f<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e2d\u56fd-\u610f\u5927\u5229\u5546\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6d1b\u4f26\u4f50\u00b7\u91cc\u5361\u8fea(Lorenzo Riccardi)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00GDP\u589e\u957f\u76ee\u6807\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u6b64\u6b21\u4e24\u4f1a\u610f\u4e49\u975e\u51e1\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u662f\u201c\u5341\u56db\u4e94\u201d\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u6536\u5b98\u4e4b\u5e74\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5236\u5b9a\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e94\u5e74\u89c4\u5212\u84dd\u56fe\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c2025\u5e74\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2d\u610f\u5efa\u4ea450\u5468\u5e74\u3002\u91cc\u5361\u8fea\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4fc3\u8fdb\u63aa\u65bd\u6709\u671b\u8425\u9020\u66f4\u5177\u6d3b\u529b\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u5e76\u5438\u5f15\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u3001\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u6570\u5b57\u8d38\u6613\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u5f3a\u52b2\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4e3a\u610f\u5927\u5229\u4f01\u4e1a\u521b\u9020\u5b9d\u8d35\u673a\u9047\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e2d\u56fd\u5fb7\u56fd\u5546\u4f1a\u534e\u5317\u53ca\u4e1c\u5317\u5730\u533a\u6267\u884c\u8463\u4e8b\u6b27\u9633\u5229\u6587(Oliver Oehms)\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u4e24\u4f1a\u7684\u6210\u679c\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5728\u534e\u5fb7\u56fd\u5546\u754c\u7684\u597d\u8bc4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u662f\u91cd\u632f\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u8425\u9020\u66f4\u5177\u6d3b\u529b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u4e3e\u63aa\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6301\u7eed\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u521b\u65b0\u548c\u7eff\u8272\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u5fb7\u4f01\u6b63\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f00\u5c55\u7814\u53d1\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u672c\u5730\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u670d\u52a1\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f00\u62d3\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

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\u3000\u3000\u6539\u5584\u6c11\u751f\u4e0e\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u53d1\u5c55\u5e76\u91cd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5168\u7403\u5316\u667a\u5e93(CCG)\u526f\u603b\u88c1\u517c\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6234\u7ef4\u00b7\u5e03\u83b1\u5c14(David Blair)\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e24\u4f1a\u7684\u6210\u679c\u201c\u5c06\u5851\u9020\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u65b0\u7bc7\u7ae0\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f53\u524d\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u6539\u5584\u6c11\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u8ffd\u6c42\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u516c\u56ed\u3001\u5b66\u6821\u548c\u519c\u6751\u9053\u8def\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u6c11\u4f17\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u63f4\u5f15\u76f8\u5173\u6570\u636e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u81ea2019\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u65b0\u5efa\u4e86\u6570\u4e07\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u7eff\u9053\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u672a\u88ab\u8ba1\u5165GDP\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u63d0\u534714\u4ebf\u4eba\u53e3\u751f\u6d3b\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u3000\u3000\u4e16\u754c\u671f\u5f85\u4ece\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u542c\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u201c\u5f62\u201d\u4e0a\u4f01\u7a33\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u52bf\u201d\u4e0a\u5411\u597d\uff0c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u6cbb\u7406\u4e2d\u7684\u4e92\u5229\u5408\u4f5c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u671f\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c55\u671b\u62a5\u544a\u300b(World Economic Outlook report)\u4e2d\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7(IMF)\u4e0a\u8c03\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd2025\u5e74\u548c2026\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002IMF\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u76ae\u57c3\u5c14-\u5965\u5229\u7ef4\u8036\u00b7\u53e4\u6797\u590f(Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas)\u79f0\u4e2d\u56fd2024\u5e74\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u662f\u201c\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u60ca\u559c\u201d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u53d1\u5c55\u9053\u8def\u4e0a\u7684\u7a33\u6b65\u524d\u884c\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5171\u540c\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000(\u7f16\u8bd1\uff1a\u9a6c\u82ae \u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u9ad8\u7433\u7433 \u97e9\u9e64)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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